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Some people might think my gaff isn’t very salubrious. Well, it’s on the riverbank.
We get flooded a lot when it rains - and it rains regularly.
It’s smelly at times. We’ve got Ratty and his increasingly
large family as our next-door neighbours and there’s
always some lout in a boat making a racket. And, boy,
did I find it hard to get a mortgage for this place.
Tried all the normal channels before meeting this spiv
with a great line in patter. It was a bit pricey but
he signed me up though, and we’re here. This is what
the expert class as ‘sub-prime lending’.
And this has been causing a lot of concerns to our American cousins.
It’s having a huge effect on the cost of living with some of
the lenders collapsing into bankruptcy. So could it happen to
a riverbank near us? I certainly hope not.
But some institutions have been so desperate to hand out mortgages
they’ve taken a big risk. Unnecessary, in my ’umble view. They’ve
been able to offer mortgages to people on low income or with
doubtful credit histories and they’ve charged them over the odds
interest fees. Now, I ain’t an economist, but this always struck
me as a real risky business. People on the breadline - or the
riverbank - with little disposable income hit with fat charges!
Come on. How come all these highly paid risk managers didn’t
spot the problem in this one?
The truth is they probably did but then the market is so short-sighted
it’s driven by short-term termism. Now thousands of people can’t
afford the repayments and are having their homes repossessed.
This is a social tragedy on a large scale.
One point is clear, that lots of happy-clappy investors haven’t
a scooby-do that they are bound up in this potential lending
timebomb. The sub-prime debts are sold on to other specialist
companies, then sold on to an investor wrapped in another company
which raises bonds with the term ‘collateralised debt obligations’.
But there’s not much information about these CDOs, their housing
market expsoure and they don’t get traded a lot. And, according
to the experts, many buyers of CDOs didn’t fully appreciate there
were hold large tranches of sub-prime lending which was dropping
in value. When they tried to sell their investment, they’ve been
losing millions.
But the worst thing for all of us, even in the UK, is that this
kind of investment collapse could usher in some kind of recession.
In America, the housing market is in a severe downturn and the
economy is bracing itself for trouble. There’s a lot of messy
litigation in the pipeline too.
So, there’s a warning for all of us over here. Certainly, I’m
taking it seriously on the riverbank. Indeed, it was the sub-prime
lending and collateralised debt obligation was the sole topic
down at the tavern last night. Far more interesting than the
football.
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